根据技术研究公司的最新报告 福雷斯特, the 聪明phone as a standout mobile category is a shaky paradigm with rapidly shifting parameters. The emergence of mobile operating systems, the ability to install and run third-party apps, and the wide availability of multimedia features (camera phones, video phones, and MP3-playing phones abound) have all been game-changing developments in the mobile field, but they are quickly becoming commonplace. According to a recent 纽约时报专题,大约50%的移动设备将“smart,”在未来的三到四年内,将使用支持多媒体的小工具,这些设备到2015年将占据移动市场的90%。

So, what defines a 聪明phone as all phones become 聪明er? What is the exact trajectory of the mobile learning curve?

首先,诸如数百万像素的闪光灯,视频播放,MP3播放器,小部件,电子邮件,社交网络访问和Internet浏览器之类的多媒体功能正成为移动设备的新标准。目前,在西欧,超过80%的手机都配备了相机,其中约60%的设备具有MP3功能,而现有设备中约有一半具有视频功能。

二,与苹果的竞争’iPhone的滴滴效应促使操作系统创新。谷歌’的Android,Blackberry Storm(听起来像暴雪的味道,但实际上是没有移动制造商的全触摸屏设备’的签名(如果笨拙的QWERTY键盘),Palm’s competitively priced Pre, and devices from HTC and Nokia have all garnered well-deserved interest in recent months. And though the iPhone still holds a significant amount of the high-end mobile market share, the number of devices sold still pales in comparison to the number of Blackberry users, for example, which leaves lots of room for 聪明phone competitors.

Third, devices that were once top-of-the-line are now moving toward mid-range prices, meaning that more and more consumers will have access to 聪明phone technology. This poses a significant threat to GPS systems, low-end video cameras, and MP3 players, all of which can look to pagers and PDAs as the ghosts of Christmas yet to come.

这些“adjacent sectors,” as they’如Forrester报告中所述,它还可以通过在移动设备上提供服务和内容,向硬件制造商授予许可技术,将自己的设备改进为领先移动电话几步之遥以及最大程度地减少与移动设备的未来重叠来为移动未来做准备移动产品。

最后,该报告将看到所有主要和次要功能集“smart”移动设备(例如Kindle 2的音乐播放器性能较差,而PlayStation Portable则是多维的,但在游戏方面表现最好),但是Forrester的员工’不要将所有竞争都视为趋向融合。“No device,” it reads, “最适合所有事物–而且永远不会。”相反,设备将在不久的将来基于设备/操作系统主要是通过应用程序(例如iPhone)进行扩展而被分类(或应该被分类)。“open”(例如Android),是否最适合用于创建或使用内容,以及它们是否更适合实用程序或娱乐。

另一个预测是,移动软件产品将继续碎片化。苹果设备将继续在苹果软件上运行;但是,HTC创建了适用于Android和Windows的手机。索尼需要Symbian的替代品’s UIQ; and Palm, Samsung, LG, Nokia, and Motorola need to develop winning strategies for the 聪明phone game. Microsoft and Google each need to work to improve their offerings and increase adoption rates. None of these facts points to a winner-takes-all conclusion, or even a two-party system such as we now see with personal computers (sorry, Linux – you’仍然是我们最喜欢的爱好操作系统)。

简而言之,Forrester中将为各种移动用户提供各种健康的产品,设备和操作系统’的手机未来版本。